
Trump is a guy who just wants his name in the history books at any cost and nuking someone is one way to guarantee that. I also think that we’re in a unique political climate now where doing so wouldn’t entirely end the world, too many world leaders are chamberlains and not churchills right now. The Western European leaders would just halt all trade with us, Iran can’t nuke us back, Russia could, but Putin doesn’t seem like the type who’s okay with ruling over ashes.
I think the only way we get to a truly civilization as we know it ending level of nuclear war is if some leader or country is too backed up that they have nothing to lose anymore. In a “Samson option” kinda way, but it could be USA, Israel, Russia, or maybe even China that could do it.
Exactly my thinking recently, and even aside from the current level of instability I’ve never really seen MAD as particularly protective of any non-nuclear state that’s underdeveloped or seen as such by the big powers. Like I just don’t buy that Putin, Xi, or any U.S. admin would ever be willing to end the world and their own systems over civilian deaths in a country perceived as third-world, besides *maybe* if it was understood as an immediate threat of further hostility