Anonymous united_states_space_force 1d

They’re preparing to mobilize 300,000 troops from reserves. Military stockpiles and factory orders ramped up at the start of the year, and hybrid attacks into Poland and Germany are testing NATO’s resolve. There’s roughly a 65-68% chance they’ll attack at this rate.

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Anonymous shield_of_democracy 1d

Looking at things from a broader strategic perspective, opening up another several hundred mile front on the flank would be an awful idea. The Russians have been grinding along in eastern Ukraine for years now, only fighting against them and whatever NATO was willing to sign over. Moscow has been trying to see what they can get away with in Europe for years now, and may be trying to goat NATO into a response that may legitimize a mobilization. Starting that war would be suicide though.

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Anonymous united_states_space_force 1d

Putin and the Russian Duma know this, but they need to legitimize their withdrawal from Ukraine somehow. If they open up another front with NATO and then sue for peace, it makes the Russian government look more legitimate in the eyes of the people. By simply withdrawing from Ukraine, the Russian government is forced to admit it lost, but if they agitate NATO, Russia can withdraw from Ukraine and suffer fewer consequences

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Anonymous united_states_space_force 1d

Currently, Russia is banking on opening up another front with NATO out of blatant desperation. Their economic situation is beyond the gutter. Their industry is in freefall and more and more people and corporations are filing for bankruptcy. If this continues Russia will collapse, a war is the only thing that Russia has left on the table realistically.

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Anonymous united_states_space_force 1d

Russia already has a civilian partisan issue. Citizens that don’t agree with the government and are going out of their way to sabotage military logistics due to a lack of faith in the government if Russia withdraws without opening up front with NATO it only involves these gorilla fighters and may start a full-blown revolution.

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Anonymous shield_of_democracy 1d

Pulling out of Ukraine would do a lot more damage to Putin politically than a confrontation with NATO would be able to solve. In fall 2022 Russia ‘annexed’ Ukraine’s 4 eastern provinces into Russia (despite not controlling them fully to this day), and a full withdrawal would be tantamount to surrendering Russian land. The most concessions I can see Putin making would be freezing the front line, and even that’s a stretch.

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Anonymous united_states_space_force 1d

As much as I wish for that to be the case, we also have to take into consideration the power of the Russian propaganda machine. All they have to do is claim that NATO is invading and the heroes and defenders need to protect the motherland. That’s all they have to do and the civilian populous stands down.

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Anonymous shield_of_democracy 1d

I can totally rationalize Russia using a NATO response to a provocation as leverage to re-gain the support of it’s people. What I struggle to, is opening up a second front while Russia is already struggling on the first front. (Not to mention, starting open conflict against an alliance with multiple nuclear armed states). Again, I would need to see Russian force posture change significantly to actually become concerned of an imminent Russian attack.

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Anonymous united_states_space_force 1d

Russia’s been on a total mobilization form of economic policy since 2024, they may not be able to afford this in the long-term, but they have the manpower and the equipment to at least waive a 90 day offensive in the Baltics, that’s it. If we’re already at the point where Putin is making claims of Russian speaking people having their rights threatened in the propaganda cycle, they are very close to making up their mind on either causing a border conflict or invading.

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Anonymous shield_of_democracy 1d

They’ve basically already been doing that. They’ve been saying to their people that the fight in Ukraine is a fight against NATO. This was especially the case during the Kursk incursion in 2024, when Ukrainians, in Western vehicles using Western weapons, invaded and held Russian land.

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Anonymous shield_of_democracy 1d

Keep in mind, that a confrontation with the Baltic states, and NATO at large, also means a conflict with the United States, which is something that needs to be considered in the Russian calculus. In my opinion, opening up that front would result in a greater chance of the destruction of the Russian state, than if it had allowed the status quo to continue.

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Anonymous united_states_space_force 1d

Using the “Russia wouldn’t do that, that’d be suicide/that’s stupid” doesn’t really apply because Russia in general is just inherently stupid and will do stupid things because some said they couldn’t.

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