You have a 50-50 chance of getting the 2 point conversion. Extra point is 94%. If you take the two point conversion approach you have a 75% chance of the game at least being tied, and there’s a chance to take the lead if you make the first conversion. Whereas with extra points your chances of being tied are 88%, but with no possibility of taking the lead

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And tying the game late in the 4th quarter still gives you a sub-50 win probability, so you’d much rather end up with the lead

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