
1. chargers and broncos missing the playoffs: broncos were an insanely lucky team that relied on holding opponents to low scores or 4th quarter comebacks from Bo Nix and the inept offense. Receiving room may be marginally better, but team as a whole is going to regress from 14-3. 9-8 or 10-7 is best case scenario. Same thing for Chargers, relied on a bunch of luck and Herbert hero ball to bail out the team. Offense *should* be healthier, but defense taking a major step back with loss of Minter
Lions finishing top 5 in the draft is simple: they’re year after year one of the most injured teams in football, and they haven’t improved in basically any of their weak spots (apart from a minor upgrade at center, Cade Mays still sucks at pass pro). Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch will miss most if not all this year with their respective injuries, and Sam LaPorta has a scary back injury that made him miss half of last year (and makes his status for week 1 questionable)
AFC South team in AFC Championship. I mean, it’s pretty simple too. I think the Jags were the best team in the AFC last year and would have been in the SB if not for bad turnover luck and Josh Allen hero ball in the wildcard. Texans could easily make the AFC Championship thanks to their defense alone (and assuming stroud doesn’t have another 5 turnover game). Titans are a sleeper team too due to their upgrades across the roster plus adding Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll
And Seahawks/Rams not making the Super Bowl is pretty reasonable too. Seahawks lost a lot of contributors on defense and lost their OC. Still a great team, but likely not SB caliber. And Rams are simply too complete of a team for it to all come together. Preseason SB favorites rarely ever make the SB
So I agree with the Lions, Broncos, Seahawks, and AFC South takes. The Chargers however did make some improvements and will likely address the IOL in the draft + get back a top 5 OT duo. They also got a big addition at OC in McDaniel. Chiefs also may start the year without Mahomes. I think the Rams take doesn’t really have much of a backing for it. Rams will likely have another good draft and injuries aside will likely be able to be a top contender again.