Anonymous #1 12h

And even if he is nominated he doesn’t go beyond #4 in power rankings of likely winners!

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Anonymous #1 12h

I agree that he’s the one to drop if one of these guys doesn’t get nominated and he definitely isn’t winning, I think he has a shot at a nomination via the Michael B Jordan playbook but who knows

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Anonymous OP 11h

I agree that he definitely has a shot at being nominated (especially if Amazon runs the right campaign), however if an Amazon movie is getting an acting nomination now I’d bet on the guy playing Stallone for I Play Rocky purely because it placed 2nd at TIFF and generally in best picture you want to go 2 out of 3 with the TIFF top 3. La Bola Negra is locked for a nom as Netflix’s push leaving Rocky and Being Heumann which didn’t get much buzz leaving Rocky needing a nom package.

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Anonymous #1 11h

Fair point though this year’s Best Actor lineup is looking to be even more stacked than last year’s and PHM was the biggest blockbuster (that feasibly has a shot at being nominated besides maybe Michael) of the first half of the year. I think it’s a toss up on if Gosling gets in or not. The other four are pretty much lock-ins by this point I feel

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Anonymous OP 11h

In my lineup, the only locks I’m confident in are Malkovich, Cruise, and Damon. I have Andrew Scott in for Elsinore as he’s getting raves. I have Pattinson at 5 but think he could drop to Andrew Garfield if NEON decides Artificial as their main push, Pedro Pascal if Behemoth is a thing, John Turturro because of Sony, & Ippolito cause of the biopic-y Rocky elephant now. I have Gosling at 10 rn. I think PHM will be the F1 of this year so techs + picture just because of the comp in acting.

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Anonymous #1 11h

I have a feeling NEON’s main push is going to be Fjord but fair enough. And yeah the main person missing from my poll is Andrew Scott I have him at 6 right now

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Anonymous OP 11h

I had it as Fjord but I’m having doubts because of many people calling it too cold/seeming lack of passion. If Artificial is good, which is a big if considering Guadagnino can be somewhat hit or miss, I think they’ll pivot. 1. Because of relevance and 2. Because of NEON’s CEO despising AI (also the Christmas release date). They also have All of a Sudden which I think could be another pivot if they need it

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