
1-2 degrees Celsius is huge for organisms that don’t actively regulate their internal temperature. And like you said, mosquitos in summer in Siberia. Thing is, they’ve been there for time immemorial and have had the time to evolve. This is the first ever colonization of an alien species into a subpolar island environment
The mosquitos found were apparently a cold tolerant species, so they might already be adapted to the environment. My point is that over time, the number of imported plants are to blame more than marginal temperature change. And “first ever”? What about rats, mice, flies, invasive plants etc?
We can blame the vector of transport AS MUCH AS the changing environment. 1.5 degrees is not ecologically marginal. The new Anthropocene climate may now facilitate the mosquito’s establishment more than ever, tolerance or not. If you brought that plant and fly over 300 years ago, I would guarantee that this would turn out differently. However, we have to wait to see if this population does establish itself in Iceland