Anonymous #2 4w

Yeah bro Miami NC state and UVA were absolute gauntlets last year. And Louisville hasn’t won a tournament game since 2017🔥

6

Anonymous OP 4w

Were they in the tournament last year?

4

Anonymous #2 4w

Yes, but they are certainly not one of the consistently high performing teams of the last decade 😭😭 and the other three werent even close

1

Anonymous OP 4w

Miami was literally an Elite 8 team less than 5 years ago and a Final Four team even more recently.

3

Anonymous OP 4w

NC State was Final Four two years ago.

6

Anonymous OP 4w

UVA has been in the postseason 7 of the last 9 seasons.

5

Anonymous #2 4w

Then why do all 3 of those teams have new coaches this year? If they’re so consistently good 😂😂 and none of those teams were even close to making the tournament last year

1

Anonymous OP 4w

You aren’t much of a reader, are you? No wonder you think this is something special.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Are you slow? Why would three of the most consistently good programs of the last decade need to fire their coaches in the last 2 years? It’s almost like they weren’t very good

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Are you slow? Thinking it is a hot take to pick a handful of recent tournament teams and predict they make the tournament again. Freaking Nostradamus over here! 🤯 Next you’re going to be telling me that you think Alabama football will play in a bowl game next year.

1

Anonymous #2 4w

Yeah buddy “NC state basketball” and “Miami basketball” are totally comparable to Alabama football. I think it’s pretty impressive to predict all of the ACC tournament locks exactly in May of last year! Especially when 3 of those teams had brand new coaches

-1

Anonymous OP 4w

Miami basketball has made it exactly as deep into postseason as Alabama football has in the past 3 years.

1

Anonymous #2 4w

And basketball and football post seasons are directly comparable! It’s not like the NCAA tournament has the most parity in sports! And since that run Miami has been dogshit so what’s the point?

0

Anonymous OP 4w

And they have a new-ish coach. Must be a really shitty football program down there in Tuscaloosa. I bet I can get really good odds right now if I put a bet on them to make the next CFP.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

You’re right. They aren’t directly comparable. Because 68 teams make the NCAA tournament. A service dog could pick six of them. I bet we could pick 20 of the 68 for 2026 right now without even thinking about it.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Right, a second year coach hand picked by the greatest college football coach ever with SEC money is directly equal to a first year coach who has never been the head coach of a college team at a school that doesn’t care about basketball, keep going, you’re really cooking here!

1

Anonymous #2 4w

Alright, tell me which teams from the ACC will be locks to make the tournament next year and we’ll come back to it!

0

Anonymous #2 4w

If you had picked these six ACC teams in 2024 to make the tournament in 2025 you would’ve been dead wrong btw

0

Anonymous OP 4w

If you put $10 on that pick set a year ago, it wouldn’t even pay out $20. That’s how much of a braindead obvious, low-risk prediction it is. Miami, NC State, Duke, UNC, UVA, Miami, and Louisville will be in the tournament next season.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

I bet Michigan, Arizona, Kansas, Purdue, UCONN, Houston, Florida, Iowa St, Gonzaga, and Illinois make it, too. And let’s throw in Clemson for some extra ACC action.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Where’s the evidence of that? I’m pretty sure the odds would’ve been much lower in May of 2025. And the prediction was locks for the tournament, not bubble teams

0

Anonymous OP 4w

The evidence is how odds work.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Show me the odds then from May of 2025

0

Anonymous OP 4w

So you don’t know. Got it.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

It’s really easy to lick the top 2 teams from each conference, but that’s not what was done in the OP. I’d say it was relatively high risk to predict that half of the ACC field had brand new coaches and then get every team correct before any preseason polls or analytics data came out could be referenced

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Show me the combined odds of all 6 of these teams making the tournament from May of 2025, not now, from May of 2025. You can’t make a claim about odds and then not show me the odds from that time period 😂

0

Anonymous OP 4w

I know you’d say it. That doesn’t make it true.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Obviously the odds of a championship have literally nothing to do with the odds of making the tournament. 😂

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Yeah no shit buddy, those are the closest comparable lines available, and the likelihood of you winning the conference regular season usually aligns with the likelihood of making the tournament. So your little odds claim is unsupported at best and more likely demonstrably wrong!

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Austin Peay has no shot at winning the NCAA tournament, but their odds of making the tourney are consistently high. Making the field is not winning it all.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

They aren’t comparable at all.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

“More likely” and “demonstrably” are contradictory.

1

Anonymous #2 4w

Winning your conference regular season and being in the running for it does usually predict whether you will make the tournament in the power 5 conferences…. Can you read?

0

Anonymous #2 4w

You calling Louisville a consistently good team the last decade when they’ve won exactly one tournament game in that span is contradictory

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Was your post about winning a game or making the field?

0

Anonymous OP 4w

You might be the dumbest motherfucker on the entire internet.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

You seem confused! The ACC regular season champion is based on your conference record, not a single game. Your conference record has significant implications for making the NCAA tournament, so it is a reasonable proxy to use to disprove your claim that all 6 teams were so obviously going to make the field back in May of 2025 as the field selection odds usually don’t even get published until July

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Got one even better for you! Louisville has made the tournament 3 times in the last 10 years, so consistently good! NC state 3 times in the last 10 years as well!

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Is 3/10 above, below, or at the national average? You’re so close to figuring something out.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

The national average of power conference teams? Definitely not even top 20

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Is 3 NCAA appearances in the last 10 years something that most programs do? Or is it something that only a small portion of teams do? Our field isn’t Power 5 conferences. Our field is the entire NCAA. There is nothing special about predicting those 6 teams will finish the year in the equivalent of the Top 68 teams.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

You’re selecting less than 10% of a field, a field in which the VAST majority of programs are not realistic options.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Most “consistently good” teams should make the tournament more than 3 times a decade and do, would you disagree? The post was picking at large bids from the ACC specifically, and getting them all correct before any data was available to analyze is impressive. There are 37 at large bids for 79 power conference teams (who all have a shot at getting one). +/- 5 for power conference autobids. It’s not like the post was picking Houston, Duke, Purdue, Florida, Kansas, and MSU to make the tournament.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

They don’t all have a realistic shot at getting one. 😂

0

Anonymous OP 4w

It’s weird that you crave this much validation for such a freezing cold prediction.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Every power conference team has a shot to make the tournament every year given their conference schedule….

1

Anonymous #2 4w

Deflect instead of answering my questions! So you’ve been disproven about Louisville and NC state are consistently high performing despite only making the tournament 3 times in 10 years, and also made a false claim about odds if you would have bet on this prediction in May 2025

0

Anonymous OP 4w

You know that isn’t true.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

No I do know it’s true. If any power conference team finishes top 2-3 in their conference they have a high likelihood of making the tournament, therefore any power conference team has a shot to make the tournament every year. Is it always likely? No, but it’s always possible. And even if you subtract the bottom 2 teams from every power conference, you still have 69 teams competing for 37 bids, as well as Gonzaga and the few mountain west teams and WCC teams that occasionally get at larges

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Holy shit guys get a room or something 😂😂

1

Anonymous OP 4w

Every Power 5 team does not have a chance of making the tournament. 😂

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Yes they do going into the season, use your brain 😂

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Having a mathematical chance is not the same thing as having an actual chance. The Dolphins *could* make the playoffs for the next 25 years. Is that a realistic chance or a mathematical chance?

0

Anonymous fuckthegovernment 4w

This guy compared Miami basketball to Alabama football with a straight face

0

Anonymous #2 4w

You’re just arguing semantics now, still not sure what your point is. You think Louisville and nc state are high performing teams??

0

Anonymous OP 4w

62 teams have made 3+ NCAA tournament appearances over the past decade. 65 out of 364. So whether your goldfish brain wants to accept it or not, both of those teams are in the Top 15% of successful programs over the last decade. If we up that to 4 (NC State), that number falls to 45 (Top 12%).

0

Anonymous #2 4w

And how many of those teams were power conference teams? Top 15% if you include mid majors sure, but that’s not a serious argument. They are certainly not top 15% of power conference teams, which are the overwhelming majority of teams that get at large bids. Your claim that they are consistently high performing is bullshit, especially since both of those teams have had multiple losing seasons the last decade. That’s the opposite of consistent.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

You can’t have it both ways.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

And also, 62/364 is 17%, so you can’t even do math correctly. I can’t have it both ways? Answer the question, how many of those 62 teams are from power conferences? I’m assuming at least 50, and then that’s 63% of power conference teams with 3+ appearances, which isn’t impressive at all

0

Anonymous OP 4w

It doesn’t matter how many of them are in power 5 conferences. Your field is the entire NCAA. It is an absolute fact that Louisville has outperformed roughly 85% of NCAA basketball programs over the last decade. Period. End of story.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

And that’s not a serious argument and a real stretch of a claim that means nothing given the lack of resources mid major teams have. Like you said, how many midmajor teams, which account for 285 D1 teams, actually have a realistic shot at making the tournament? When people talk about high performing consistent teams, they are always talking about power conference programs. You’re moving the goalposts so your bullshit claims have some merit.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

It’s exactly as serious as “predicting” that six successful programs will reach the NcAA tournament. Remember what I said about having it both ways? You still can’t.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Your definition of successful is meaningless. 63% of power conference teams would then be within the top 15% of college basketball programs, and that’s a pretty obvious and arbitrary claim that doesn’t argue what you think it’s arguing. And the original post wasn’t picking the field, it was predicting the ACC teams that would make the tournament.

0

Anonymous OP 4w

It isn’t my definition. It is THE definition. The point is still the same, and you inadvertently just proved it. It is remarkably easy to predict likely tournament teams because power 5 teams have sustained success and sustained appearances. If you’d picked 6 mid-majors and nailed it, that would be impressive. Choosing teams that are already likely to make the tournament is not impressive unless you are the dumbest motherfucker alive.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Hello

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Your point doesn’t even make sense. Picking the conference tournament champion of 6 mid major conferences is not more impressive at all…. Midmajors don’t ever get at large bids so there’s never a reason to make a prediction like people do for major conferences, because a midmajor conference rarely gets more than one team in. In fact, that specific combination of teams have not all made the tournament at the same time in any year for the last decade.. but apparently it’s so easy to predict

0

Anonymous OP 4w

Try it.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

If it’s so easy to predict these teams all making the tournament why hasn’t it happened once in the last 10 years?

0

Anonymous #2 4w

Try what? Picking the best midmajor from each conference? It’s not that hard

0

Anonymous OP 4w

By all means, tell us which mid-majors will be in next year’s tournament.

1

Anonymous #2 4w

Vermont, Akron, Memphis, VCU, Austin Peay, Montana State. Now tell me why if the original prediction was so predictable that it hasn’t happened in the last 10 years?

0

Anonymous OP 4w

It wasn’t a prediction for a previous year, was it?

1

Anonymous OP 4w

See you in 52 weeks to make fun of you. Thanks.

0

Anonymous #2 4w

You made the same prediction for next year… if the odds were so high of all those teams making it why hasn’t it happened before? It’s almost like it’s hard to predict which ACC teams will make the tournament every year, especially when 3 of those teams had new coaches 🤯

0